Near-Term Business Scenario

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Near-Term Business Scenario
A Basis for Lunar Business Plans


One of the essentials in the near term is the push past the purely scientific and exploratory Apollo style mission, and move interest away from government funded infrastructure building, and onto commercial applications. An aggressive public awareness program would be necessary to get the people of the world reinvested in space, and a so called Killer-app would need to be discovered to gain corporate interest.

There is a critical shortage of ifnormaitve articles like this.

Near-Term Specific Assumptions

The Near-Term Scenario will have the following specific features;

Personal Time

Miners will have some free time. There will be more than enough personnel to run the settlement at any given time because it takes more people to handle emergencies than for normal operations. The prototype shop will be available to miners for use when they are not servicing the Sandworms. The Bone Yard will be available to miners to get basic parts from descent vehicles, broken parts, etc. for use in the Prototype shop. As mentioned in the section on communication, personal activities and interpersonal contacts are critical to good mental health. As such, facilities will be available for some form of recreation, be it exercise or what have you.

Strengths of the Near-Term

An enormous public buy-in for the return to the Moon mission is expected. Also, because cutting edge technologies are available, and individuals interested in the technology field will flourish in the environment. Nationalism will also play a role with competition between countries.

Limitations in the Near-Term

There are many challenges left to over come in the short term. One key problem is the low man power caused by the sheer cost of sending people to the moon. Another is the low availability of electrical power again, because it is expensive to transport solar panels to the moon, and even more energy costly to manufacture them there. Living space will be very limited, and cramped quarters could lead to poor mental health for the miners. The price of shipping anything there or back will be incredibly expensive, and almost negates the value of sending Helium 3 home. Ultimately, the Moon is a dangerous and volatile environment which poses a major stopping block to any form of settlement there, and creates many unforeseeable risks.

Other Scenarios

Ideas not meeting this near-term scenario can still be great, they simply belong in some other category like the Long-Term Business Scenario.

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