Talk:Earth Population
This entry is an excerpt from a much longer paper I am writing on future work for NASA. I started work on it because interest in our return to the Moon has been very low (around 4%) and my efforts to do anything about that have not produced results.
The idea is to look at all the clearly defined problems of the 21st century, such as this Population Bomb and Hubbert’s Peak. Look at major strengths, such as Moore’s Law. And, look at the major trends, such as the 21st century the century of biology. Then look at space project that make since in this rather harsh universe.
So far this analysis has produce powerful long-term justification for our return to the Moon, but no short-term ones. Meanwhile, some of the alternatives like Earth science from space show powerful short-term advantages. We are certainly approaching a crossroads.
If anyone here has any ideas on strengthening our return to the Moon argument within the context of this analysis, I would very much like to hear them.
Thanks,
--Jriley 15:45, 16 December 2007 (UTC)
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The vision
It is nice to provide a vision of people expanding into space as a positive and hopeful vision of the future. Just so people will not get the idea that they are being conned, the vision should represent reality, the real hope of resources in space being used to help Earth. Space based solar power and space based facilities for economic transportation are nice. We need a development plan that leads to these things. Remote controlled probes should analyze the particular nature of the resources available on Luna. Plans for industrial use of those resources should be demonstrated on small scale. When we are fairly confident that we can build the initial infrastructure that we need to manufacture a robust industrial base, a transportation system should be built to haul the initial infrastructure to Luna. Cargo for Luna and a lunar lander can be launched from Earth separately and integrated with an Earth-moon inter orbit tug at a remotely controlled station in orbit. The expense of on orbit integration will be mainly the expense of learning how to do it. This expense will be spread over a large number of loads. The main expense of lunar manufacturing will eventually be wages for the crew operating the lunar base by remote control. At some time it will be convenient to have facilities for people to live and work on Luna, but not many.
Only two things are necessary for this to become a reality. 1) There must be international agreements to share the expense and benefits of the lunar operations in some mutually beneficial way among space faring nations with some consideration given to other nations. 2) There must be the political will for a continued reasonable level of financing that could ramp up to perhaps 15 billion dollars a year within a few years and continue on for perhaps fifty years before first electrical power is delivered to the grid. That is in the neighborhood of 700 billion dollars over fifty years. That is difficult but the research and development in the first 15 years should determine that this can actually be done with a risk level that should be attractive to private investment. If after the first 15 years it is determined that this is not likely to bring in the expected profits on schedule, that would be the time to give up further work on this plan. Money would be lost but knowledge gained, something like the space program that people have had during the last fifty years. The prize is so great, access to the energy and material resources of the solar system and protection from the population bomb, that I do not understand why people are not jumping at the chance. - Farred 03:38, 28 August 2013 (UTC)
Pick a number out of the hat.
The 15 billion dollars a year written above is not complete guess-work. It is in the same order of magnitude as the current NASA budget, and the most That I would hope for. NASA ought to keep up its work on aeronautics but the [budget for] work on the astronaut program could all be turned over to developing industry on Luna. Some people might want to continue deep space missions, but it seems to me that after current deep space missions are completed it would be better to do future deep space missions with industrialized resources on Luna. That would cause delay but the potential returns are much better than possible with missions launched from Earth. If only 5 billion dollars a year can become available I would still suggest fifty years before first electrical power is delivered to the grid, because I do not know how the rate of industrial growth on Luna would depend upon the budgetary support from Earth. People have written about closure in parts production for such an industrial colony, being able to produce each and every part that is used in the production process. It does not seem like a serious problem to me. Each and every piece of technologically sophisticated equipment on Earth was produced by some less developed piece of machinery with human skill in a chain that goes back to people making tools using tools of sticks, stones, bone and leather. People have dexterous enough robots now on assembly lines in car factories that they could build the tools needed to industrialize the moon. I have written of at least one way to protect such dexterous robots from the lunar vacuum and dust. As soon as an indoor environment can be built on Luna, there should be indoor robots that can do their production tasks with less capital investment. Five billion dollars a year for fifty years is only 250 billion dollars and that might be enough. The crucial thing to do is the exploration, research and development that will answer the questions of how long and how much money. There is much scientific effort and much engineering between here and now and there and then. The fifteen year effort I suggested for making the determination of feasibility might be completed in ten years, but it will never be finished if there is not a determination with budgetary support to finish the task.
I liken the task to building the Panama Canal. It was an enormous technological task when built. The canal was not run to get a return on the investment and repay the principal. It was run with charges to pay for the operating expenses. The United States benefited greatly from the increased shipping near our port cities. All humanity would benefit from space based solar power, space habitats, and runways in orbit that space craft can land on. - Farred 03:46, 31 August 2013 (UTC) I [filled in] an omission above in brackets. - Farred 23:40, 16 May 2015 (BST)
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