Future Work for NASA - Revision history

Michel Lamontagne: /* An Alternative View */

2022-10-19T20:51:51Z

An Alternative View

Michel Lamontagne: /* An Alternative View */

2022-10-19T20:50:04Z

An Alternative View

Michel Lamontagne: /* An Alternative View */

2022-10-19T20:49:49Z

An Alternative View

Michel Lamontagne at 20:46, 19 October 2022

2022-10-19T20:46:04Z

Farred: remove stray punctuation

2014-06-13T18:44:17Z

remove stray punctuation

Farred: addition

2013-12-12T14:52:08Z

addition

Jriley: /* Appendix B, Future Work for NASA Readings: */

2008-05-26T18:06:02Z

Appendix B, Future Work for NASA Readings:

Jriley: /* Appendix B, Farther Readings: */

2008-05-23T18:10:36Z

Appendix B, Farther Readings:

Jriley: move readings

2008-05-23T18:06:44Z

move readings

Jriley at 18:01, 23 May 2008

2008-05-23T18:01:11Z

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ''' This is not an official NASA document, '''
-''' the opinions presented are only those of the author, John Thomas Riley (Tom) Home: jriley@charm.net '''
+''' the opinions presented are only those of the author, John Thomas Riley (Tom) Home: jriley@charm.net, the 23 May 2008 '''
 ==Purpose==

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:50, 19 October 2022
Line 5:		Line 5:
	=An Alternative View=		=An Alternative View=

−	~~----~~

	''' This is not an official NASA document, '''		''' This is not an official NASA document, '''

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 ''' This is not an official NASA document, '''
-''' the opinions presented are only those of the author. '''
+''' the opinions presented are only those of the author, John Thomas Riley (Tom) Home: jriley@charm.net '''
 ==Purpose==

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-{|align=left
+{|align=right
 |__TOC__
 |}

@@ Line 469: / Line 469: @@
 ;No space elevator: Problems with materials, problems with crossing radiation belts, problems with safety, all doom this idea.
-;No sky cities: Small outposts in space, yes, but large settlements, no: not in Earth orbit, not on the Moon, and not on Mars.  The physics and economics simply do not work.  Maybe some time after 2050 several may be built, but not before that, and by the time they are built our society will be so different that we can now hardly imagine the choices that will then be open.  Even then, no significant fraction of Earth’s population will ever physically move off this planet.<ref>This is a favored and repeated opinion of user Jriley but it is not universally accepted as shown in the [[Eddy Current Brake to Orbit]] article]]</ref>   No direct relief from the population bomb is to be found in settling space.
+;No sky cities: Small outposts in space, yes, but large settlements, no: not in Earth orbit, not on the Moon, and not on Mars.  The physics and economics simply do not work.  Maybe some time after 2050 several may be built, but not before that, and by the time they are built our society will be so different that we can now hardly imagine the choices that will then be open.  Even then, no significant fraction of Earth’s population will ever physically move off this planet.<ref>This is a favored and repeated opinion of user Jriley but it is not universally accepted as shown in the [[Eddy Current Brake to Orbit]] article.</ref>   No direct relief from the population bomb is to be found in settling space.
 ;Friendly aliens will not arrive: ET’s eminent arrival is just wishful thinking.  No sheriff’s posse is going to come riding over the ridge to solve all our problems.  We must solve them ourselves.

@@ Line 469: / Line 469: @@
 ;No space elevator: Problems with materials, problems with crossing radiation belts, problems with safety, all doom this idea.
-;No sky cities: Small outposts in space, yes, but large settlements, no: not in Earth orbit, not on the Moon, and not on Mars.  The physics and economics simply do not work.  Maybe some time after 2050 several may be built, but not before that, and by the time they are built our society will be so different that we can now hardly imagine the choices that will then be open.  Even then, no significant fraction of Earth’s population will ever physically move off this planet.  No direct relief from the population bomb is to be found in settling space.
+;No sky cities: Small outposts in space, yes, but large settlements, no: not in Earth orbit, not on the Moon, and not on Mars.  The physics and economics simply do not work.  Maybe some time after 2050 several may be built, but not before that, and by the time they are built our society will be so different that we can now hardly imagine the choices that will then be open.  Even then, no significant fraction of Earth’s population will ever physically move off this planet.<ref>This is a favored and repeated opinion of user Jriley but it is not universally accepted as shown in the [[Eddy Current Brake to Orbit]] article]]</ref>   No direct relief from the population bomb is to be found in settling space.
 ;Friendly aliens will not arrive: ET’s eminent arrival is just wishful thinking.  No sheriff’s posse is going to come riding over the ridge to solve all our problems.  We must solve them ourselves.
@@ Line 545: / Line 545: @@
 ==Appendix C, [[Technical Aspects of Future Predictions ]]:==
-−
+==Note==
 ----
 [[Category:NASA]]

@@ Line 543: / Line 543: @@
 ==Appendix B, [[Future Work for NASA Readings]]:==
 ----
 [[Category:NASA]]

@@ Line 542: / Line 542: @@
 I have been studying technical future analysis since 1966.
-==Appendix B, [[Farther Readings]]:==
+==Appendix B, [[Future Work for NASA Readings]]:==
 ----
 [[Category:NASA]]

@@ Line 75: / Line 75: @@
 The planning cycle covered by this paper must bridge the discontinuity in our path that is likely during an administration change.   Now is the time to get ready for all possibilities.  Most people would see this paper as having a progressive frame of reference. To the extent that this is true, it can serve as a straw man to help people learn to understand this point of view.
-===Our Vision===
+====Our Vision====
 We can use our knowledge of science and the natural environment to help develop a world-wide human society that lives in harmony with its planet, Earth.
-===The work ahead for NASA===
+====The work ahead for NASA====
 NASA owns a big piece of the technical work on climate change.  We must perform on this problem, probably more than on any other, and in this GSFC has a particularly large part to play.  Data taken in space will play a big part, and we as Americans can pull ahead in a number of areas:
@@ Line 95: / Line 95: @@
 [[Image:WorldProductionOfOil01.jpg|frame|Figure 2, World production of oil]]
-==Hubbert’s Peak==
+===Hubbert’s Peak===
 The amount of oil on Earth is basically a fixed quantity.  By oil, we are talking here only about the liquid hydrocarbons you can pump from the ground and those that are recovered from gas wells.  All other types of hydrocarbons are considered here to be alternatives.
@@ Line 151: / Line 151: @@
 [[Image:WorldPopulation01.jpg|frame|Figure 3, World Population:  A Family of Curves]]
-==The Population Bomb==
+===The Population Bomb===
 The population of the Earth is currently about 6.6 billion people.  It has been growing exponentially since the Industrial Revolution became firmly established in the early 1800’s.  It cannot grow exponentially for much longer.
@@ Line 209: / Line 209: @@
 [[Image:MooresLaw01.jpg|frame|Figure 4, Moore's Law]]
-==Moore's Law==
+===Moore's Law===
 Figure 4 shows growth in the number of transistors in a computer chip over the last four decades.  Note that the number of transistor axis is logarithmic.  The growth rate is very close to doubling every 24 month. Moore’s Law is the clearest example of exponential growth we have and one that has already changed society with the growth of computers, communications, robotics, and personal electronics.
@@ Line 347: / Line 347: @@
 It is impossible to imagine that we will have a positive outcome without constructive change in every one of these areas.  Still for the 21st century, the leader of then all is widely seen to be science and technology.
 ====Our Vision====
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 NASA is a leader in the premier arena, science and technology.  It takes leadership from the area of politics and it feeds resources and ideas into the area of commerce.  NASA has a large part to play at the very heart of the 21st century.
 ==Technology Winners and Losers==