Near-Term Business Scenario

Short-Term Business Scenario
A Basis for Lunar Business Plans

Rough Draft

Introduction:

Getting past Apollo

Keep people engaged in the adventure both on the Moon and on Earth.

Find out what works and what is hot.

General Description

NASA’s Part

NASA will build basic infrastructure, after that it is up to commercial development. As shown in NASA Exploration Strategy.

Lunar Resource Extraction Settlement

Early Schmitt mining settlement on Moon

Polar or equatorial location not specified

Just past astronaut timeline stage, commercial operations just starting.

Resource Exploitation will likely be the first commercial application.

We have only a small economic toe-hold on the Moon

See Timelines

Settlement Business Environment

A consortium of aerospace companies runs large commercial operations

Referred to here as The Company.

People on the Moon

The goal of People living on the Moon is an expensive and difficult proposition. Individuals on the Moon will be encouraged and supported to be entrepreneurs, and will be afforded intellectual property rights. The Company will buy ideas from the settlers while also funding the ore extraction and then having proprietary rights to sell it. Interactions with people on Earth, including economic interactions, will help keep lunar people sane and happy

Scope of Plans

Working Assumptions for Business Plans

Plans include both products and services

Plans include both efforts by the Company and by individual settlers

A separate plan is included for each identified off lunar market.

Communication with Earth

The Moon will always have very high bandwidth data connections with the Earth.

This is a complete change from any previous settlement activity.

Shipment back to Earth

Shipment back to Earth will be limited:

Small ballast can top off shipments: cheap, low in mass (grams). Could be replacements for radiation shields with contained lunar mass on return trip

Dedicated robot shipments: An empty ship sent from Earth, lunar hydrogen and oxygen for return rocket, lunar reentry shield, load in tens of kilograms, slow trip, expensive. More of these flights are possible in long-term than in the short term.

Short-term Specific Assumptions

The Short-term Scenario will have the following specific features;

Personal Time

Miners will have some free time

It takes more people to handle emergencies than for normal operations.

Prototype Shop time is available to miners

The Bone Yard available to miners to get basic parts from descent vehicles, broken parts, etc. for use in the Prototype shop.

Personal activities and interpersonal contacts are critical to good mental health.

Strengths of the Short-Term

Enormous buy-in for the mission is expected.

Cutting edge technologies are available, and individuals interested in the technology field will flourish in the environment.

Nationalism plays a role with competition between countries.

Limitations in the Short-Term

Challenges to be overcome:

Low manpower available

Low electrical power available

Limited living space

Expensive shipment to and from Earth

Quick start required

Dangerous

Unknown risks

Other Scenarios

Ideas not meeting this short-term scenario simply belong in some other category like Long-term.

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